2043 15 WEEK REPORTThe below playoff scenarios are what I believe to be true but not only do I make mistakes but MFN's tiebreakers haven't been clearly defined to my satisfaction.
Take what I say with a grain of salt and play to win because I don't want anyone to think they have something won, bench starters and I was wrong!
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1. Vancouver Vandals (13-2) [1]
Vancouver has locked their division Title and the #1 seed.
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2. Buffalo Skull Crushers (11-4) [2]
They control their own fate and lock up the #2 seed with a win over Gem City in week 16. A lose coupled with a Pittsburgh win over Toronto would drop them to the #3 seed.
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3. Dakota Blizzard (10-5) [3]
Dakota wins the division with a win over Cincinnati in week 16 and is line to be the #3 seed. If Dakota wins, Pittsburgh wins and Buffalo loses then they would drop to the #4 seed. If Dakota loses and Michigan wins then they lose the division and drop to the #5 seed. If Dakota & Michigan both lose then Dakota wins the division and becomes the #3 or #4 seed depending on Pittsburgh & Houston winning or losing. At worse, Dakota would become the #6 seed.
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4. Pittsburgh Blitzkrieg (10-5) [4]
Pittsburgh needs to beat Toronto and they win their division. If they lose and Houston beats Michigan then they lose the division and becomes either the #5 or #6 seed depending on Dakota's outcome.
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5. Oakland Outlaws (10-5) [6]
Oakland has secured a Wildcard spot and currently controls the #5 seed and locks up the #5 seed with a win over Vancouver who has secured the bye and has nothing to play for. If Oakland loses, they could fall all the way to the #7 depending on the results of Dakota, Michigan, Pittsburgh & Houston.
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6. Houston Roughnecks (9-6) [7]
Houston is guaranteed at least the #6 seed. If they beat Michigan and Oakland loses, they secure the #5 seed. If they win and Pittsburgh loses to Toronto, they win the division and become the #4 seed. If they lose to Michigan they become the #7 seed.
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7. Michigan Wolverines (9-6) [5]
Michigan makes the postseason with a win over Houston. A win coupled with a Dakota lose means they win their division and become the #4 seed. A win coupled with a Dakota win makes then the #6 seed. A win coupled with a Dakota win and Oakland lose makes then the #5 seed. If Michigan loses and Cincinnati beats Dakota plus Indiana loses to Kansas City then they are eliminated. If Michigan loses and both Cincinnati & Indiana win, all 3 teams will be 9-7 with 7-5 Conference records and it's uncertain who makes it but based on net points, it appears Indiana wins. If Michigan loses, Cincinnati loses and Indiana wins then the 2 teams are tied with identical Conference records and common opponent record which means it comes down to points which means Indiana should be in. If Michigan loses plus Cincinnati & Indiana lose then Michigan wins the #7 seed.
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8. Cincinnati Defenders (8-7) [9]
9. Indiana Fog (8-7) [8]
Both teams need to win and have Houston beat Michigan to have a shot at the postseason. If Michigan wins then both teams are eliminated because neither wins a tiebreaker with Houston. If Houston wins combined with a Cincinnati win and Indiana lose then Cincinnati secures the #7 seed and Michigan is eliminated based on a head to head win. If Houston wins combined with an Indiana win and Cincinnati lose then it goes to points which should goto Indiana since both teams sit at +38 through week 15. If Houston wins combined with Cincinnati & Indiana winning then it's a 3-way tie and again goes to points.
Michigan +38
Indiana +38
Cincinnati-12
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1. Atlanta Dominators (15-0) [1]
The standings say Atlanta has secured the bye and it seems they have since even if Atlanta loses to Memphis and they both wind up 15-1, they will have identical Conference records and records versus common opponents which takes it to points.
Atlanta +402
Arizona +325
So unless Arizona blows out winless LA and Atlanta loses to Memphis by a combined 78 points then Atlanta secures the bye.
For example:
Atlanta loses 31-18 (-13)
Arizona wins 65-0 (+65)
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2. Arizona Wranglers (14-1) [2]
Arizona is seemingly locked into the #2 seed but an Atlanta lose coupled with a blowout of LA could theoretically land them the Bye. (See above)
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3. Gem City Gangsters (12-3) [4]
They become the #3 seed with a win over Buffalo or a Philadelphia lose to Providence. If Gem City loses and Philadelphia wins they become the #4 seed.
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4. Philadelphia Slayers (12-3) [3]
Philadelphia has won the division despite Providence winning in week 16 gives them identical records & division records but Philadelphia wins the common games tiebreaker. Philadelphia beat Dakota while Providence lost which is the difference. Philadelphia is the #4 seed unless they win and Gem City loses in week 16.
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5. Memphis Maniacs (12-3) [5]
Memphis is currently the #5 seed and lock it up with a win over Atlanta or Providence lose to Philadelphia. If Memphis loses and Providence wins then they become the #6 seed.
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6. Providence Islanders (11-4) [6]
Providence locked up the #6 seed and can move up to the #5 seed with a win over Philadelphia couple with a Memphis lose to Atlanta.
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7. Vegas Black Aces (7-8) [8]
Vegas controls their own destiny and makes the playoffs with a win over Brooklyn in week 16. If they lose, they can still back into the playoffs with a Montana lose to Miami. If Vegas loses coupled with a Montana win, they are eliminated.
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8. Montana Grizzlies (7-8) [9]
Montana needs to beat Miami and have Vegas lose to Brooklyn to make the playoffs
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KEY MATCHUPS WEEK 16Cincinnati @ Dakota
Philadelphia @ Providence
Los Angeles @ Arizona
Indiana @ Kansas City
Vegas @ Brooklyn
Montana @ Miami
Vancouver @ Oakland
Buffalo @ Gem City
Atlanta @ Memphis
Pittsburgh @ Toronto
Houston @ Michigan
Last edited at 1/11/2023 2:01 pm
