4 booms, 2 busts

Every time I think I've got drafting figured out, it humbles me again.

1.15 CB James Knight V: 40 +6/-2 Now 53/80

I need to get a lot faster. He'll still play, but I need to do much, much better than this.

1.24 CB James Fletcher V: 44 +5/-3 Now 49/74

I made this pick because of my mounting frustration with my existing cornerbacks. Hindsight is 20/20.

2.15 RT Seth Giron V: 40 +8/-5 Now 47/73

I was also frustrated with my offensive line. I need to get better at blocking, but this isn't it.

3.3 WR Ben Snyder V: 86 +3/-4 Now 45/72

My search for a deep threat continues.

3.15 QB Dennis Scarbrough V: 42 +8/+3 Now 47/82

He made himself worthwhile. I can wait on him because I'm not going anywhere.

4.15 WR Walter Dickerson V: 84 +1/-4 Now 39/65

I took two chances on WR and whiffed on both. Sigh.

5.15 LG Ronald Brinkley V: 4 +6/-1 Now 44/70

Low risk, low reward. It is sad that this looks like a genius pick now.

6.15 SLB Kenneth Brown V: 44 +3/-2 Now 43/58

The engine is just rubbing it in.

7.15 RDE Jeremy Shellman V: 22 +6/+2 Now 36/58

Of course, I have to wait until I don't care before I have some success.

I got about what I paid for on everybody except my safety at 1.3. With a 20 vol I wouldn't expect him to drop by 7. He still good but kinda sucks

Maybe I could be like Greg and take high volatility every time. It feels like i'm cutting off half the draft board, but if everybody sane turns out to be a chump, perhaps the asylum is the way to go.

After scanning what was posted and taking in my own picks I've got a theory. This is an established league laden with high end talent. Just like STS I had a couple picks in the 40 vol range and a couple super low vol....each player took - future hits. My theory is the low vol players are more apt to fall back than to gain to keep the talent base in a certain stratosphere/area.

Also, probably to nudge us more to the high volatility selections. Lets say those are 50/50 in the boom/bust category. The 50% whom grab the high end, high vol guys whom bust gain a player who is essentially useless while the other 50% get an exploder/superstar. You can sort of control super teams or balance it out if you nudge GMs to high vol at the top and get them to miss on some crucial picks.

FIfth-round FB selection boomed at +7. Second round WR went -3. Everyone else +1/-1 after camp from the draft class.

Absolutely nothing to get excited about....no starters just depth players

I would prefer low volatility early in the draft, but by the time I picked, it was high volatility or reach down the draft board for a "safe" pick. I've had very high volatility guys not move at all, or very little.

It's not an exact science, but on some high volatility players you can get a read on which way they're likely to go. I've been burned before, but no guts, no glory.

I look at vol like this....you can take only low vol and hit a bunch of singles with the occasional double in training camp or you take high vol and hit a homerun now and then with some strikeouts thrown in.

The only way you are getting an elite player is to either have a top 5 pick and get a high rated low vol player or take a high vol high rated player later in the draft.

I picked 6 players & all 6 players took a hit. I'm not even sure if I'll keep 3 at this point......