WILD CARD ROUND

A quick breakdown on the 4 Wildcard games

Cincinnati @ Birmingham (-4)

The teams split the season series with both teams winning at home. Cincinnati won 24-7 in week 9. They held Birmingham to 201 yards of total offense with 74 of those yards coming late in the 4th quarter for Birminghams only score of the game. Cincinnati only had 286 yards of offense but QB, George Freeman had a super efficent day passing going 19/20 passing for 213 yards and 2 TDs.
Birmingham won the rematch at home 10-3. Defense again ruled the day, this time Cincinnati was held to 112 yards of offense while Birmingham had nearly the same output as the 1st game, 200 yards. The difference in the game was an interception at midfield in the 1st quarter which led to the games only TD. Birmingham's QB, Anthony Malcolm had limited sucess but completed 17/21 passes for 115 yards and a TD.

Tale of the tape

Cincinnati

Offense 16th (18th P) (14th R)

Defense 9th ( 9th P) ( 8th R)

Birmingham

Offense 20th (30th P) (6th R)
Defense 3rd (10th P) (2nd R)

Key Injuries

Birmingham

RB Seth Ball Q4 with a foot injury. He led the team in yards (713) and attempts (242) plus caught 34 passes for 177 yards.

MLB Joe Davidson O3 with a concussion. The QB of the defense was 2nd in tackles with 3 sacks and an INT.

Cincinnati

RT Joseph Woodside O12 with an ankle injury. He played in 13 games and 756 snaps allowing 4 sacks in 322 chances and 17 tackles in 286 chances. He will be replaced by the tatum of Steven Martin and Rod Belliveau. They combined for 241 snaps allowing 3 sacks in 166 chances and 7 tackles in 189 chances.

Keys to the game

-Birmingham boasts a +11 turnover margin while Cincinnati sits at -5. In what should be another defensive battle, look for a key turnover to seal the win.
-Birmingham has homefield advantage but has key injuries on both sides of the ball while Cincinnati comes in fairly healthy.
-Cincinnati has the playoff experience edge with this being Birmingham's first trip to the playoffs but Cincinnati is only 1-3 in the playoffs under Fhunt3.

Prediction

Too close to call, I see a defensive showdown with both kickers key to both field position and scoring. I think the team that wins the turnover battle, wins this game so the edge goes to Birmingham 13-9. It wouldnt be a shock if the score was reversed but I will predict this by the numbers.

Buffalo (-3) @ Miami

Another divional matchup in the Wildcard round. Both teams split the season series with the road team winning in both games. In week 12, Buffalo went to Miami and handed them a 35-6 thrashing. After Miami scored the first 6 points of the game on a couple fieldgoals in the 1st quarter, Buffalo rattled off the next 35 points of the game. Buffalo amassed 404 yards of offense, rushing for 157 while QB, Juan Kirk went 12/21 passing for 247 yards and 4TDs. Miami was held to 214 yards of total offense, getting sacked 7 times and turning the ball over 3 times.
The rematch in week 15 saw Miami win a high scoring affair 41-34 in Buffalo. In the game, Buffalo blew 16-0 and 24-7 leads in the 1st half, but still led entering halftime 31-28. The scoring trailed off in the 2nd half with teams exchanging fieldgoals until the end of the 4th quarter where Miami scored the decisive TD. Miami put up 537 yards of offense with QB, David Walton going 30/35 passing for *** yards and 5 TDs. In stark contrast to the first matchup, Miami didnt turn the ball over nor did they allow a sack.

Tale of the tape

Buffalo

Offense 1st ( 11th P) ( 1st R)
Defense 27th (29th P) (15th R)

Miami

Offense 4th ( 3rd P) ( 4th R)
Defense 19th (17th P) (22nd R)

Key injuries

Buffalo

RDE Milton Lujan Q6 with a neck injury. The defensive end led the team with 12 sacks to go along with 27 tackles and an INT.
LT Dustin Jefferson Q6 with a knee injury. The starting LT started 14 games and pkayed 889 snaps. He only allowed 2 sacks blocking for 355 pass plays and allowed 25 tackles on 484 run plays.

Miami

Miami enters the game with no player above probable on the injury report.

Keys to the game

-Miami's QB, David Walton was 3rd in the league with 4075 yards passing, completing 79.4% of his passes for 27 TDs and only 7 INTs. He will matchup against the 29th ranked pass defense of Buffalo.
-Buffalo has the top ranked rushing attack in the league behind a trio of backs led by Jack Miller who was 3rd in the league in rushing yards with 946 yards, averaging 5.1 per carry. He is complemented by WR Perry Thacker, 645 yards 5.5 average and WR Bert Reynolds, 470 yards 4.3 average. The three combined for over 2000 yards and 11 TDs. They will be matched up against Miami's 22nd ranked rush defense.
-Buffalo is +8 in turnover margin compared to Miami who is +2
-Buffalo is 10th in sacks per game while Miami is 20th in sacks allowed per game
- Buffalo is 1st in rushing yards/carry while Miami is 27th defensively in rushing yards/carry
-Miami is 2nd in yards/attempt passing vs Buffalo who is 21st defensively in yards/attempt but surprisingly Buffalo is 1st in yards/attempt passing while Miami sits at 20th defensively in yards/attempt.
-Miami has homefield advantage and comes into the game virtually injury free
-Buffalo has the experience edge with a trip to XFL III on his resume. This is Miami's first appearance in the playoffs under owner Gridironfan

Prediction

In what is sure to be a high scoring game, it will be Miami's passing attack vs Buffalo's top ranked ground game and the most efficient passing offense in the league. In there matchups, Buffalo averaged 34.5 points and if Miami stands a chance, they will need to repeat the 0 turnover, 0 sacks allowed performance from week 15. I cant see a flawless performance in the playoffs so my money is on Buffalo in a barn burner, 45-35.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-3)

In the only matchup between the two teams this season, Seattle won 38-5.
Despite the lopsided score, this was a defensive battle for much of the game. The stat line is ugly for both teams offensively, Seattle totaled just 214 yards of offense while Green Bay was held to 104 yards of offense. Seattles defense amassed 9 sacks including 2 safeties plus managed 4 takeaways which led to 2 TDs late in the game. Green Bay's defense got 7 sacks including a safety but only managed one takeaway. Green Bay's QB, Matthew Peasley had one of the worst games of his career going 18/36 passing for 158 yards and 3 INTs. His QB rating of 27.31 for the game is a far cry from his lifetime rating of 90.33 which spans 5 seasons, 22,438 career yards and a lifetime TD/INT ratio of 139/72. Seattle's QB, Clyde Price faired better going 22/27 passing for 175 yards with 2 TDs and a pick.

Tale of the tape

Seattle

Offense. 8th (8th P) (11th R)
Defense. 8th (8th P) ( 9th R)

Green Bay

Offense. 10th (7th P) (16th R)
Defense. 15th (16th P) (18th R)

Key Injuries

Seattle

RB Craig Cox Q5 with an ankle injury. Cox is a versatile back who was 2nd on the team in rushing with 343 yards and 2nd in receptions with 50. His total of 922 total yards led the team which includes his return yardage.

Green Bay

QB Matthew Peasley D8 with a knee injury. To say this is a key injury doesnt give it justice. His 22,438 yards passing is 2nd Alltime in the XFL. His 139 career TDs is 5th Alltime in the XFL. He is 2nd Alltime in playoff passing yards with 2436 and TDs with 15. It looks highly Doubtful he can start which will leave it up to former Chicago starter, Shannon Macias. Macias hasnt started a regular season game in 4 years since leaving Chicago after the 2019 season. He was just 2/14 passing this season for 34 yards and an INT. All is not lost as he does have limited but highly sucessful experience in the postseason completing 5/6 passes for 142 yards and 2 TDs.

Keys to the game

-Seattle has homefield advantage and went 7-1 at home this season
-Green Bay has the edge in experience with this being owner Beefkabaab's 5th straight playoff appearance. His playoff record is 4-4 and he has never lost in the 1st round of the playoffs.
-Seattle has more recent success having made it to XFL IV before losing to Oakland
-Seattle clearly has the edge due to Green Bays QB injury.
-Green Bay is 2nd in the league at sacking the QB while Seattle is 5th but Green Bay is 32nd in the league at allowing sacks while Seattle is 24th. The last time these teams met, the teams combined for 16 sacks.
-Green Bay leads the league with a +16 turnover margin while Seattle is tied for 8th at +3.

Prediction

Given the fact that Green Bay will most likely be without there starting QB or even if he does play, may be extremely limited, the safe money is on Seattle to win at home. I have alot of respect for owner Beefkabaab and I think he will put up a good fight but in the end Seattle wins, 22-15.

Arizona @ Providence (-2)

In there only meeting of the year, the 2 teams played to a 28-28 tie. The teams were close in total yardage and both turned the ball over 1 time. The main difference was how both times scored, Arizona scored 4 TDs while Providence score 2 TDs 4 FGs and a safety.

Tale of the tape

Arizona

Offense 6th ( 4th P) (13th R)
Defense. 13th (12th P) (16th R)

Providence

Offense 7th ( 6th P) ( 9th R)
Defene. 28th (26th P) (24th R)

Key injuries

Arizona

FB David Williams D3 with a hand injury. A part time blocking back, he had very limited impact in the offense.

Providence

LDE Phillip Prince Q5 with a knee injury. Prince led the team with 13 sacks to go along with 34 tackles.

Keys to the game

-Arizona has the clear advantage in turnover margin at +1 while Providence is ranked 31st at -10
-Providence ranks 17th in sacks and 8th in sacks allowed while Arizona is 26th and 19th respectively.
-Providence has homefield advantage where they went (6-1-1) while Arizona went (4-3-1) on the road.
-Arizona has a very minimal advantage at QB. There QB, Richard Pinto was 4th in yards passing, 3rd in TDs with a QB rating of 108.54. The Providence QB, Eliseo Towne was 6th in both yards passing and TDs with a QB rating of 108.54.
-both coaches are making there first playoff appearance.

Prediction

This game is hard to pick because I have alot of respect for both wieczoreks and rednu and the job they both have done getting their respective teams into the playoffs. Both offenses should move the ball but with the combination of a poor defensive ranking and a -10 turnover margin for Prividence, I see Arizona winning 34-28 in overtime...why not

That completes my breakdown of the wildcard games. My predictions are just educated guesses and I tried to remain impartial. They DO NOT respresent who I personally want to win. I would be just as happy if I got them all wrong. I argued with myself about even doing predictions but in the end, its just for fun and to add something to the league and the playoffs.

I dont believe we currently have any owners that would over react to any of my breakdowns. I call it like I see it but Im never malicious in what I say. We had an owner in the past that quit the league when I criticized his 1st round pick. He took it personally and I hope everyone takes it for what it truly is.......an honest opinion

Don't forget to order your Providence playoff attire. Official NXC East championship hats, T-shirts and hoodies are available from approved vendors, at the stadium and through the Islanders' online store. Grab a piece of history before kickoff!!

You should be proud of yourself, CJ, you've transformed this league to where every playoff round is near or at Title Match caliber.

Good game, Gridiron. That was Battle #1 of the playoffs for us and we were fortunate to advance.

CJ: Taking the time to put all of this together makes this league one of the best! I'm dropping a couple of leagues, BUT NOT THIS ONE. Thank you.

Smirt: I see Buffalo on the post-season schedule and just assumed it was our annual conference championship match-up. The fact that BUF-OAK is a division game this season shows how much harder this league has become.

Wildcard results

Cincinnati @ Birmingham

Prediction

Too close to call, I see a defensive showdown with both kickers key to both field position and scoring. I think the team that wins the turnover battle, wins this game so the edge goes to Birmingham 13-9. It wouldnt be a shock if the score was reversed but I will predict this by the numbers.

Final score 11-3 Birmingham wins

Birmingham won the defensive battle 2-0 and their kicker hit 3 field goals at 52, 49, and 36 yards to seal the win.

Buffalo @ Miami

Prediction

In what is sure to be a high scoring game, it will be Miami's passing attack vs Buffalo's top ranked ground game and the most efficient passing offense in the league. In there matchups, Buffalo averaged 34.5 points and if Miami stands a chance, they will need to repeat the 0 turnover, 0 sacks allowed performance from week 15. I cant see a flawless performance in the playoffs so my money is on Buffalo in a barn burner, 45-35.

Final score 25-22 Buffalo wins

Buffalo ran for over 200 yards and Miami threw for nearly 300 but both offenses stalled in the 2nd half. Miami won the turnover battle 2-1 and actually won the sack battle 5-1 both it wasnt enough as Miami ran out of time on there last drive at the Buffalo 40 to end the game.

Green Bay @ Seattle

Prediction

Given the fact that Green Bay will most likely be without there starting QB or even if he does play, may be extremely limited, the safe money is on Seattle to win at home. I have alot of respect for owner Beefkabaab and I think he will put up a good fight but in the end Seattle wins, 22-15.

Final score 28-7 Seattle

Green Bay started there backup and Seattle's defense was just too much as they caused 2 turnovers and sacked the QB 7 times.

Arizona @ Providence

Prediction

This game is hard to pick because I have alot of respect for both wieczoreks and rednu and the job they both have done getting their respective teams into the playoffs. Both offenses should move the ball but with the combination of a poor defensive ranking and a -10 turnover margin for Providence, I see Arizona winning 34-28 in overtime...why not

Final score 31-9 Providence wins

The turnover battle was even at 1 each but Providence showed why the sum is greater then the parts. Facing a top 10 offense, Providence's defense ranked near the bottom 10 in nearly every category, held Arizona to just 223 total yards of offense, 7 first downs and controlled the clock limiting Arizona to just 23:17 in time of possession.

Well 3 out of 4 aint bad.

Congratulations to all those that advanced

Now on to the divisional round!!!

The Divisional Round

Buffalo @ Oakland (-3)

In week 10, Oakland went to Buffalo and won 17-15. The two AXC powers attempted to beat each other at there own game with Buffalo having the #1 rushing offense and Oakland having the #2 passing offense. So of course it was Oakland rushing for 179 yards while Buffalo passed for 256 yards. The game was ultimately decided by 2 key plays. At the end of the first half, Buffalo was driving and in field goal range when they fumbled the ball away and in the 3rd quarter Buffalo K, Charley Mcmillin missed a 44 yard fieldgoal.

Tale of the tape

Buffalo

Offense 1st (11th P) (1st R)
Defense 27th (29th P) (15th R)

Oakland

Offense 3rd (2nd P) (5th R)
Defense 11th (22nd P) (6th R)

Injuries

Buffalo

RDE Milton Lujan Q5 with a neck injury
LG Hugo Thorton Q3 with an arm injury
LG Percy Howard Q6 with an ankle injury

Lujan is Buffalo's leader on sacks and having both LGs banged up may hurt Buffalos lethal running game.

Oakland

No injury above Probable

Keys to victory

-Oakland has homefield advantage where they went 8-0 in the regular season with an average margin of victory being by 15 points.
-Buffalo has the advantage in turnover margin at +8 compared to -4 of Oakland.
-Buffalo's #1 rushing attack with be going up against the #6 rush defense.
-Oakland's #2 passing attack will be going up against the #29 pass defense.
-This will be the 3rd straight year that Oakland and Buffalo have met in the playoffs splitting the first 2 meetings with the winner appearing in the title game.

Prediction

Looking at everything, the ratings, injuries and homefield advantage, I would be hard pressed to pick against 2 time champion Oakland in this game. Just the fact that Buffalo has the 29th ranked pass defense and Oakland has the # 2 passing attack should seal the deal for me but Im gonna play a hunch based on nothing more then Buffalo's turnover margin and there ability to run the ball and eat up clock. Buffalo wins 21-20 in a nail biter.